A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that divided the country and caused chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in universities but scarcely any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer supports unity or the current situation. They authors two articles that seek neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates encompass national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they support unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent official who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he stated. "Somebody will win here and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has got something to learn from the other's arguments."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
