Australia's Failed Attempt to Host UN Climate Summit Looks Chaotic – But It May Actually Be the Optimal Outcome Achievable

Ouch. From one perspective, Australia's long-running bid to host the UN climate conference next year has concluded unsuccessfully.

It campaigned for over 36 months for the rights to put on the largest global environmental conference and sustainable business expo, which would have brought tens of thousands of delegates to the city of Adelaide next fall.

That's not happening. Rather, the conference known as the UN climate meeting is moving to the tourist destination of the Turkish coastal city, on the Mediterranean coast of Turkey.

Letdown and Conflicting Signals

This outcome will be a significant disappointment to numerous individuals who had hoped hosting the environmental gathering could help speed up Australia's transition from being a fossil fuel economy to a clean energy leader, and bring international focus to the existential plight facing island countries in the Pacific, who would have been co-hosts.

The process that resulted in defeat has been an opaque mess. Recently, there have been doubts that Anthony Albanese and other senior figures really wanted the proposal to be approved. His statements sent mixed messages at best. This led to stories in the local and global press saying the administration was walking away.

This differed from the communication being conveyed at the climate negotiations in the Brazilian city, where the Australian climate change minister, the climate minister, had just stated the country was "in it to win it".

Ambiguous backing is a recurring problem for the hosting proposal. While Bowen championed it, other high-level figures of the government have only sometimes appeared to care.

DFAT, traditionally responsible for international climate negotiations, has been uninvolved and at times completely against.

Evidence suggests the prime minister has considered UN climate conferences a important focus. He has missed one since taking office in 2022. It's uncertain, but many may question if more could have been done to secure the hosting rights.

An Alternative View

That's the negative take. However, another perspective to look at it.

In the context the Cop30 talks this week in Brazil – and from an global viewpoint – the announcement on this week may, ironically, have been the best result possible.

Bowen set out on that day an unprecedented deal that he was developing with his Turkish counterpart, Murat Kurum. The Turkish government would be the conference leader, host and primary coordinator, and the Australian delegation – the climate minister – would take on the position as "president of negotiations", wrangling almost all nations on the stuff that the countries actually attend for – the discussions on how to together combat the climate crisis.

There would also be a greater focus on the Pacific, including a lead-up event on an Pacific island.

Grounds for Scepticism

Multiple reasons exist for scepticism. The two nations do not have a strong partnership. The details of the deal had not been finalized at the moment of announcement. The whole thing could fall over before it gets started.

However, it might represent a way to recover value from what looked like an impending disaster for the multilateral work on global warming.

Turkey is generally viewed in the international community as having been determined on creating disruption in the international climate negotiations. The system is supposed to work by unanimous agreement. Usually, that means if there are multiple countries in the race those with weaker backing either withdraw gracefully, or a deal is quietly done to encourage them to step aside.

Turkey plainly had less support than the joint Pacific proposal to organize the summit. Approximately 24 of the 28 nations responsible for selecting next year's venue had supported the Australian bid.

However, exceptionally, Ankara refused to yield. The word "disruption" has been thrown around in the past week, and not just by Australians.

Geopolitical Context

Ankara's stubbornness can be interpreted as a reflection of the fracturing geopolitical climate. With the US absent under the former president, there has been no major power with the influence to confront the petroleum exporters that provided the Turkish government with some cover.

The Turkish president is seen as aligned with the Russian leader. Several nations worried about a conference obstructed from the top if his administration managed the negotiations. Germany did not want to have to host an unprepared climate conference at the UN environmental office in Bonn, which is what would have happened under international regulations if the deadlock wasn't broken.

An Innovative Approach

A resolution was needed. The UN system is flawed and often disconcerting to watch, but multilateral action has demonstrably made a difference in the fight against climate change. This joint approach is a creative idea that maintains progress when it is needed more than ever.

Despite understandable criticism of the federal administration over its hypocritical support for expanding fossil fuel exports, environmental advocates who attend UN conferences see Bowen as a force for good in the negotiations. He has been asked to co-chair discussion groups at multiple summits he has attended.

This matters. Although some have dismissed the role of a "chief negotiator", specialists from research centers and veteran observers at climate talks say it is pivotal to their success.

"Each effective summit has been shaped by a president holding the pen who can listen, forge agreement and deliver an ambitious outcome. We saw that in Berlin in 1995, in Cancún in 2010 and Paris in 2015. The reverse happened in the Danish city in 2009," they note. "It's the most important role at the conference other than making sure that people have food."

Remaining Concerns

Multiple unanswered questions. For example, civil society plays a vital role at climate conferences. How, if anything, can the federal administration do to prevent a restriction on NGO participation by the host government?

Possibly little. However, this doesn't prevent this arrangement appearing as the best chance available to have a conference that may offer something for the Pacific, Australia and the global community. It's worth a try.