Where Has the Excitement Gone? This Fall of Open-Play Goal Scoring

One of the biggest stories of the EPL season so far is the drop of scoring in open-play scenarios and the way sides are netting increasingly from dead-ball situations instead.

Looking at goal sources to the initial 11 matches last season, we note 39 fewer scored in open play and 26 more from team set-pieces and penalties, giving us 13 fewer altogether.

Considering the bigger picture, shot attempts teams are taking show a remarkable 370 fewer in open play than at this stage last season.

Even with the big increase in set-play finishes, there have actually been just two more shots created from these situations outside of spot-kicks, demonstrating the proficiency clubs have been at discovering methods to score from set-pieces.

Goal Statistics Reveal an Interesting Narrative

301 total goals scored in 110 games so far calculates at nearly 2.75 goals per fixture, if this persists for the whole season might be the smallest for since 2020-21, from five seasons ago (2.69).

But just 196 goals coming in open-play averages out 1.78 per game and is on course to be the least for 16 years, back in 2009-10 (1.76).

2009-10 is also the only Premier League campaign to see goals scored at a higher rate from set-plays excluding penalties than this campaign's frequency of 0.77 each match (0.79 per game).

Which Teams Are Most Responsible?

In terms of goals scored from open play, Wolverhampton Wanderers have experienced the most significant drop, netting just four in 11 matches, 10 fewer than this point the previous campaign.

Outside of Wolves, the Premier League's drop in goals from open play is predominantly a London phenomenon, with five of the London's seven clubs recording a minimum of five less scores from open play than the previous year.

To be fair, this is primarily due to them netting numerous goals at the beginning of last season as opposed to their genuine struggle to convert in open play the current term.

Meanwhile Manchester City have recorded the most significant jump, with all but one of their 23 scores to date originating in open play.

Set-Piece Success

Looking at the promoted teams with those that were relegated they took the place of. Sunderland Sunderland have netted three more goals in open-play than the Saints did in their opening 11 matches on their way to relegation the previous campaign.

When it comes to scoring from dead-ball situations (aside from penalties), the Gunners and Chelsea have recorded the biggest increase, with both sides compensating for the five fewer scores that they've scored in open-play with an equal amount from set-pieces.

United have netted double the number goals from set-plays as they achieved in the 11 games the previous campaign ahead of their coach took over, while the Black Cats once more have been more effective at scoring than the fellow red-and-whites they superseded.

City don't seem to have got the message about scoring more from set-plays, because they've recorded three less than the previous campaign, similar to the Reds, although that might be down to the altered approach they're working to install.

League-Wide Trends

Six teams – Arsenal, the Blues, Fulham, Newcastle, Spurs and West Ham – represent this term's leading trend-followers by scoring fewer scores from open play and increased from set-plays, while Manchester City represent the unique club to defy the pattern so far by achieving the complete reverse.

It will be interesting to observe if clubs continue to rely so heavily on set-pieces as matches continue or if they regain their overall inventiveness and begin converting additional scores in open-play too.